AVS vs Vizela
- AVS45%
- Draw28%
- Vizela27%
1.25 expected goals for AVS
0.81 expected goals for Vizela
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
AVS has the edge (45%), but not by much: a draw is at 28% and a Vizela win at 27%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the AVS defence, which lets in 32% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Vizela defence, which lets in 24% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 45% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
AVS
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- AVS attack+9%
- Vizela defence−24%
Expected goals1.25
Vizela
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Vizela attack−12%
- AVS defence−32%
Expected goals0.81
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals87%
- Over 1.5 goals62%
- Over 2.5 goals45%
- Over 3.5 goals15%
- Over 4.5 goals6%
- Both teams score51%
- AVS or draw73%
- Draw or Vizela55%
- No draw72%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.