Probably Football

Matches

Segunda Liga (Portugal)

Vizela vs Academica

  1. Vizela36%
  2. Draw27%
  3. Academica37%

1.23 expected goals for Vizela

1.21 expected goals for Academica

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 37%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Vizela defence, which lets in 23% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Vizela attack, which scores 15% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 48% chance, and both teams scoring, 53%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Vizela

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Vizela attack−15%
  3. Academica defence−4%

Expected goals1.23

Academica

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Academica attack+16%
  2. Vizela defence−23%

Expected goals1.21

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals91%
  2. Over 1.5 goals71%
  3. Over 2.5 goals48%
  4. Over 3.5 goals23%
  5. Over 4.5 goals10%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.