Tondela vs Felgueiras 1932
- Tondela43%
- Draw28%
- Felgueiras 193229%
1.18 expected goals for Tondela
0.84 expected goals for Felgueiras 1932
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
Tondela has the edge (43%), but not by much: a draw is at 28% and a Felgueiras 1932 win at 29%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Felgueiras 1932 defence, which lets in 32% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Tondela defence, which lets in 31% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 44% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Tondela
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Tondela attack+15%
- Felgueiras 1932 defence−32%
Expected goals1.18
Felgueiras 1932
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Felgueiras 1932 attack−10%
- Tondela defence−31%
Expected goals0.84
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals86%
- Over 1.5 goals61%
- Over 2.5 goals44%
- Over 3.5 goals15%
- Over 4.5 goals5%
- Both teams score51%
- Tondela or draw71%
- Draw or Felgueiras 193257%
- No draw72%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.