Probably Football

Matches

Segunda Liga (Portugal)

Lusitânia Lourosa vs Farense

  1. Lusitânia Lourosa35%
  2. Draw28%
  3. Farense37%

1.21 expected goals for Lusitânia Lourosa

1.21 expected goals for Farense

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 37%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Farense defence, which lets in 35% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Lusitânia Lourosa attack, which scores 23% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 48% chance, and both teams scoring, 53%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Lusitânia Lourosa

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Lusitânia Lourosa attack+23%
  3. Farense defence−35%

Expected goals1.21

Farense

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Farense attack+3%
  2. Lusitânia Lourosa defence−14%

Expected goals1.21

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals90%
  2. Over 1.5 goals70%
  3. Over 2.5 goals48%
  4. Over 3.5 goals23%
  5. Over 4.5 goals10%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.