Probably Football

Matches

2. Bundesliga (Germany)

FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg

  1. FC St. Pauli36%
  2. Draw28%
  3. 1. FC Nürnberg36%

1.18 expected goals for FC St. Pauli

1.32 expected goals for 1. FC Nürnberg

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 36%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the FC St. Pauli defence, which lets in 34% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the 1. FC Nürnberg attack, which scores 48% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 56% chance, and both teams scoring, 56%. And about 10.0 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

FC St. Pauli

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. FC St. Pauli attack−8%
  3. 1. FC Nürnberg defence−15%

Expected goals1.18

1. FC Nürnberg

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. 1. FC Nürnberg attack+48%
  2. FC St. Pauli defence−34%

Expected goals1.32

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals91%
  2. Over 1.5 goals72%
  3. Over 2.5 goals56%
  4. Over 3.5 goals24%
  5. Over 4.5 goals11%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.0 expected

5.1 for FC St. Pauli and 4.9 for 1. FC Nürnberg

  1. Over 8.5 corners62%
  2. Over 9.5 corners51%
  3. Over 10.5 corners41%

Cards

4.4 expected

2.1 for FC St. Pauli and 2.3 for 1. FC Nürnberg

  1. Over 3.5 cards64%
  2. Over 4.5 cards44%
  3. Over 5.5 cards28%

Shots

28.7 expected

14.7 for FC St. Pauli and 14.0 for 1. FC Nürnberg

  1. Over 20.5 shots87%
  2. Over 22.5 shots79%
  3. Over 24.5 shots70%

Fouls

24.6 expected

13.2 for FC St. Pauli and 11.4 for 1. FC Nürnberg

  1. Over 20.5 fouls77%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls63%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls49%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.