Probably Football

Matches

2. Bundesliga (Germany)

Saturday 31 October, 07:00

1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Hertha BSC

  1. 1. FC Kaiserslautern38%
  2. Draw30%
  3. Hertha BSC32%

1.08 expected goals for 1. FC Kaiserslautern

1.04 expected goals for Hertha BSC

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 38%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the 1. FC Kaiserslautern defence, which lets in 42% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Hertha BSC defence, which lets in 32% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 54% chance, and both teams scoring, 54%. And about 10.6 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

1. FC Kaiserslautern

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. 1. FC Kaiserslautern attack+6%
  3. Hertha BSC defence−32%

Expected goals1.09

Hertha BSC

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Hertha BSC attack+33%
  2. 1. FC Kaiserslautern defence−42%

Expected goals1.04

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals87%
  2. Over 1.5 goals63%
  3. Over 2.5 goals54%
  4. Over 3.5 goals17%
  5. Over 4.5 goals6%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.6 expected

5.5 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern and 5.0 for Hertha BSC

  1. Over 8.5 corners67%
  2. Over 9.5 corners57%
  3. Over 10.5 corners47%

Cards

4.1 expected

1.8 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern and 2.3 for Hertha BSC

  1. Over 3.5 cards58%
  2. Over 4.5 cards39%
  3. Over 5.5 cards23%

Shots

30.3 expected

14.1 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern and 16.2 for Hertha BSC

  1. Over 20.5 shots90%
  2. Over 22.5 shots84%
  3. Over 24.5 shots76%

Fouls

21.6 expected

10.9 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern and 10.7 for Hertha BSC

  1. Over 20.5 fouls57%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls41%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls27%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 19:03 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.