Probably Football

Matches

2. Bundesliga (Germany)

SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel

  1. SpVgg Greuther Fürth34%
  2. Draw28%
  3. Holstein Kiel38%

1.20 expected goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth

1.45 expected goals for Holstein Kiel

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 38%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Holstein Kiel defence, which lets in 29% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 56% chance, and both teams scoring, 56%. And about 10.9 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack+12%
  3. Holstein Kiel defence−29%

Expected goals1.20

Holstein Kiel

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Holstein Kiel attack+11%
  2. SpVgg Greuther Fürth defence−5%

Expected goals1.44

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%
  2. Over 1.5 goals75%
  3. Over 2.5 goals56%
  4. Over 3.5 goals27%
  5. Over 4.5 goals13%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.9 expected

6.0 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 5.0 for Holstein Kiel

  1. Over 8.5 corners70%
  2. Over 9.5 corners60%
  3. Over 10.5 corners50%

Cards

4.2 expected

1.7 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 2.5 for Holstein Kiel

  1. Over 3.5 cards61%
  2. Over 4.5 cards41%
  3. Over 5.5 cards25%

Shots

28.4 expected

14.9 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 13.6 for Holstein Kiel

  1. Over 20.5 shots86%
  2. Over 22.5 shots78%
  3. Over 24.5 shots68%

Fouls

22.9 expected

11.1 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 11.8 for Holstein Kiel

  1. Over 20.5 fouls67%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls51%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls36%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.