Probably Football

Matches

2. Bundesliga (Germany)

Saturday 31 October, 07:00

SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Magdeburg

  1. SV Darmstadt 9831%
  2. Draw24%
  3. 1. FC Magdeburg45%

1.39 expected goals for SV Darmstadt 98

2.05 expected goals for 1. FC Magdeburg

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

1. FC Magdeburg has the edge (45%), but not by much: a draw is at 24% and a SV Darmstadt 98 win at 31%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the 1. FC Magdeburg attack, which scores 68% more goals than an average team. Next comes the 1. FC Magdeburg defence, which lets in 15% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 61% chance, and both teams scoring, 59%. And about 9.5 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

SV Darmstadt 98

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. SV Darmstadt 98 attack+9%
  3. 1. FC Magdeburg defence−15%

Expected goals1.39

1. FC Magdeburg

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. 1. FC Magdeburg attack+68%
  2. SV Darmstadt 98 defence−10%

Expected goals2.05

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%
  2. Over 1.5 goals86%
  3. Over 2.5 goals61%
  4. Over 3.5 goals45%
  5. Over 4.5 goals26%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.5 expected

4.9 for SV Darmstadt 98 and 4.6 for 1. FC Magdeburg

  1. Over 8.5 corners57%
  2. Over 9.5 corners47%
  3. Over 10.5 corners37%

Cards

4.0 expected

1.9 for SV Darmstadt 98 and 2.1 for 1. FC Magdeburg

  1. Over 3.5 cards57%
  2. Over 4.5 cards37%
  3. Over 5.5 cards21%

Shots

25.2 expected

12.0 for SV Darmstadt 98 and 13.2 for 1. FC Magdeburg

  1. Over 20.5 shots74%
  2. Over 22.5 shots63%
  3. Over 24.5 shots51%

Fouls

22.3 expected

10.8 for SV Darmstadt 98 and 11.5 for 1. FC Magdeburg

  1. Over 20.5 fouls62%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls47%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls32%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 19:03 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.