Probably Football

Matches

2. Bundesliga (Germany)

Saturday 24 October, 06:30

Final score

VfL Bochum1-1VfL Wolfsburg

The model gave this result 26%. Its most likely result was a VfL Wolfsburg win (44%).

VfL Bochum vs VfL Wolfsburg

  1. VfL Bochum30%
  2. Draw26%
  3. VfL Wolfsburg44%

1.20 expected goals for VfL Bochum

1.79 expected goals for VfL Wolfsburg

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

VfL Wolfsburg has the edge (44%), but not by much: a draw is at 26% and a VfL Bochum win at 30%. It expects 3.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 58% chance, and both teams scoring, 58%. And about 10.8 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals80%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals58%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals35%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals18%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.8 expected

5.8 for VfL Bochum and 5.0 for VfL Wolfsburg

  1. Over 8.5 corners69%
  2. Over 9.5 corners59%
  3. Over 10.5 corners49%

Cards

4.4 expected

2.2 for VfL Bochum and 2.2 for VfL Wolfsburg

  1. Over 3.5 cards65%
  2. Over 4.5 cards45%
  3. Over 5.5 cards29%

Shots

31.1 expected

15.9 for VfL Bochum and 15.2 for VfL Wolfsburg

  1. Over 20.5 shots92%
  2. Over 22.5 shots86%
  3. Over 24.5 shots79%

Fouls

24.2 expected

11.7 for VfL Bochum and 12.5 for VfL Wolfsburg

  1. Over 20.5 fouls75%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls61%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls46%

Saved before kickoff, on 23 October at 07:08 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.