Probably Football

Matches

2. Division (Denmark)

Thisted FC vs B 93

  1. Thisted FC29%
  2. Draw26%
  3. B 9345%

1.40 expected goals for Thisted FC

1.71 expected goals for B 93

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

B 93 has the edge (45%), but not by much: a draw is at 26% and a Thisted FC win at 29%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the B 93 attack, which scores 32% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 53% chance, and both teams scoring, 58%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Thisted FC

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Thisted FC attack−6%
  3. B 93 defence−1%

Expected goals1.40

B 93

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. B 93 attack+32%
  2. Thisted FC defence−5%

Expected goals1.71

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals95%
  2. Over 1.5 goals82%
  3. Over 2.5 goals53%
  4. Over 3.5 goals38%
  5. Over 4.5 goals20%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.