Probably Football

Matches

2. Division (Denmark)

Saturday 31 October, 08:00

Brabrand vs FA 2000

  1. Brabrand54%
  2. Draw25%
  3. FA 200021%

1.75 expected goals for Brabrand

0.81 expected goals for FA 2000

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Brabrand has the edge (54%), but not by much: a draw is at 25% and a FA 2000 win at 21%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Brabrand defence, which lets in 23% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the FA 2000 attack, which scores 22% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 49% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Brabrand

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Brabrand attack+1%
  3. FA 2000 defence+15%

Expected goals1.75

FA 2000

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. FA 2000 attack−22%
  2. Brabrand defence−23%

Expected goals0.81

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%
  2. Over 1.5 goals73%
  3. Over 2.5 goals49%
  4. Over 3.5 goals26%
  5. Over 4.5 goals12%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 20:04 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.