Probably Football

Matches

Primeira Liga (Portugal)

Famalicao vs Arouca

  1. Famalicao38%
  2. Draw29%
  3. Arouca33%

1.35 expected goals for Famalicao

1.22 expected goals for Arouca

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 38%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Famalicao defence, which lets in 43% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Arouca defence, which lets in 37% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 48% chance, and both teams scoring, 50%. And about 9.0 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Famalicao

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Famalicao attack+41%
  3. Arouca defence−37%

Expected goals1.35

Arouca

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Arouca attack+58%
  2. Famalicao defence−43%

Expected goals1.22

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%
  2. Over 1.5 goals73%
  3. Over 2.5 goals48%
  4. Over 3.5 goals26%
  5. Over 4.5 goals12%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.0 expected

4.9 for Famalicao and 4.1 for Arouca

  1. Over 8.5 corners52%
  2. Over 9.5 corners42%
  3. Over 10.5 corners32%

Cards

4.9 expected

2.1 for Famalicao and 2.8 for Arouca

  1. Over 3.5 cards71%
  2. Over 4.5 cards53%
  3. Over 5.5 cards36%

Shots

23.4 expected

11.9 for Famalicao and 11.6 for Arouca

  1. Over 20.5 shots66%
  2. Over 22.5 shots53%
  3. Over 24.5 shots41%

Fouls

27.1 expected

11.2 for Famalicao and 15.9 for Arouca

  1. Over 20.5 fouls88%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls78%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls66%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.