Moreirense vs Estrela
- Moreirense43%
- Draw28%
- Estrela29%
1.50 expected goals for Moreirense
1.20 expected goals for Estrela
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
Moreirense has the edge (43%), but not by much: a draw is at 28% and a Estrela win at 29%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Moreirense defence, which lets in 29% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Estrela attack, which scores 24% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 49% chance, and both teams scoring, 50%. And about 9.0 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Moreirense
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Moreirense attack+16%
- Estrela defence−14%
Expected goals1.50
Estrela
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Estrela attack+24%
- Moreirense defence−29%
Expected goals1.20
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals93%
- Over 1.5 goals76%
- Over 2.5 goals49%
- Over 3.5 goals28%
- Over 4.5 goals14%
- Both teams score50%
- Moreirense or draw71%
- Draw or Estrela57%
- No draw72%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
9.0 expected
4.5 for Moreirense and 4.5 for Estrela
- Over 8.5 corners51%
- Over 9.5 corners41%
- Over 10.5 corners31%
Cards
4.3 expected
1.9 for Moreirense and 2.4 for Estrela
- Over 3.5 cards62%
- Over 4.5 cards43%
- Over 5.5 cards26%
Shots
24.5 expected
11.4 for Moreirense and 13.1 for Estrela
- Over 20.5 shots71%
- Over 22.5 shots59%
- Over 24.5 shots47%
Fouls
23.7 expected
12.0 for Moreirense and 11.6 for Estrela
- Over 20.5 fouls72%
- Over 22.5 fouls57%
- Over 24.5 fouls42%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.