Probably Football

Matches

Primeira Liga (Portugal)

Maritimo vs Santa Clara

  1. Maritimo23%
  2. Draw29%
  3. Santa Clara48%

0.92 expected goals for Maritimo

1.37 expected goals for Santa Clara

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Santa Clara has the edge (48%), but not by much: a draw is at 29% and a Maritimo win at 23%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Santa Clara defence, which lets in 47% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Santa Clara attack, which scores 25% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 45% chance, and both teams scoring, 48%. And about 9.3 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Maritimo

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Maritimo attack+15%
  3. Santa Clara defence−47%

Expected goals0.92

Santa Clara

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Santa Clara attack+25%
  2. Maritimo defence−19%

Expected goals1.37

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals89%
  2. Over 1.5 goals67%
  3. Over 2.5 goals45%
  4. Over 3.5 goals20%
  5. Over 4.5 goals8%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.3 expected

4.8 for Maritimo and 4.5 for Santa Clara

  1. Over 8.5 corners55%
  2. Over 9.5 corners44%
  3. Over 10.5 corners34%

Cards

4.5 expected

1.9 for Maritimo and 2.6 for Santa Clara

  1. Over 3.5 cards66%
  2. Over 4.5 cards47%
  3. Over 5.5 cards30%

Shots

23.3 expected

9.8 for Maritimo and 13.5 for Santa Clara

  1. Over 20.5 shots65%
  2. Over 22.5 shots52%
  3. Over 24.5 shots40%

Fouls

25.9 expected

13.3 for Maritimo and 12.6 for Santa Clara

  1. Over 20.5 fouls83%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls72%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls59%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.