FC Porto vs Estoril
- FC Porto78%
- Draw16%
- Estoril6%
2.20 expected goals for FC Porto
0.58 expected goals for Estoril
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
The model makes FC Porto the clear favourite: 78% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the FC Porto defence, which lets in 65% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the FC Porto attack, which scores 86% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 50% chance, and both teams scoring, 46%. And about 8.9 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
FC Porto
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- FC Porto attack+86%
- Estoril defence−22%
Expected goals2.20
Estoril
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Estoril attack+21%
- FC Porto defence−65%
Expected goals0.58
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals93%
- Over 1.5 goals77%
- Over 2.5 goals50%
- Over 3.5 goals30%
- Over 4.5 goals15%
- Both teams score46%
- FC Porto or draw94%
- Draw or Estoril22%
- No draw84%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
8.9 expected
4.8 for FC Porto and 4.1 for Estoril
- Over 8.5 corners51%
- Over 9.5 corners40%
- Over 10.5 corners30%
Cards
4.0 expected
1.6 for FC Porto and 2.4 for Estoril
- Over 3.5 cards57%
- Over 4.5 cards38%
- Over 5.5 cards22%
Shots
28.3 expected
18.1 for FC Porto and 10.2 for Estoril
- Over 20.5 shots85%
- Over 22.5 shots77%
- Over 24.5 shots67%
Fouls
24.6 expected
12.6 for FC Porto and 12.0 for Estoril
- Over 20.5 fouls77%
- Over 22.5 fouls64%
- Over 24.5 fouls49%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.