Casa Pia vs Sporting CP
- Casa Pia10%
- Draw17%
- Sporting CP73%
0.69 expected goals for Casa Pia
2.14 expected goals for Sporting CP
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
The model makes Sporting CP the clear favourite: 73% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Sporting CP attack, which scores 127% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Sporting CP defence, which lets in 51% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 51% chance, and both teams scoring, 48%. And about 10.7 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Casa Pia
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Casa Pia attack−7%
- Sporting CP defence−51%
Expected goals0.69
Sporting CP
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Sporting CP attack+127%
- Casa Pia defence−31%
Expected goals2.14
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals94%
- Over 1.5 goals78%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- Over 3.5 goals31%
- Over 4.5 goals16%
- Both teams score48%
- Casa Pia or draw27%
- Draw or Sporting CP91%
- No draw83%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
10.7 expected
4.8 for Casa Pia and 6.0 for Sporting CP
- Over 8.5 corners68%
- Over 9.5 corners59%
- Over 10.5 corners49%
Cards
4.9 expected
2.5 for Casa Pia and 2.4 for Sporting CP
- Over 3.5 cards71%
- Over 4.5 cards53%
- Over 5.5 cards36%
Shots
27.7 expected
12.2 for Casa Pia and 15.4 for Sporting CP
- Over 20.5 shots84%
- Over 22.5 shots75%
- Over 24.5 shots64%
Fouls
24.0 expected
12.6 for Casa Pia and 11.4 for Sporting CP
- Over 20.5 fouls74%
- Over 22.5 fouls60%
- Over 24.5 fouls45%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.