Probably Football

Matches

Primeira Liga (Portugal)

Arouca vs Nacional

  1. Arouca59%
  2. Draw24%
  3. Nacional17%

1.88 expected goals for Arouca

0.99 expected goals for Nacional

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Arouca the clear favourite: 59% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Arouca attack, which scores 63% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Arouca defence, which lets in 34% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 52% chance, and both teams scoring, 50%. And about 9.5 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Arouca

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Arouca attack+63%
  3. Nacional defence−23%

Expected goals1.88

Nacional

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Nacional attack+11%
  2. Arouca defence−34%

Expected goals0.99

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%
  2. Over 1.5 goals79%
  3. Over 2.5 goals52%
  4. Over 3.5 goals32%
  5. Over 4.5 goals16%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.5 expected

5.2 for Arouca and 4.3 for Nacional

  1. Over 8.5 corners57%
  2. Over 9.5 corners46%
  3. Over 10.5 corners36%

Cards

4.7 expected

2.5 for Arouca and 2.1 for Nacional

  1. Over 3.5 cards68%
  2. Over 4.5 cards50%
  3. Over 5.5 cards32%

Shots

24.0 expected

14.4 for Arouca and 9.5 for Nacional

  1. Over 20.5 shots69%
  2. Over 22.5 shots56%
  3. Over 24.5 shots44%

Fouls

22.2 expected

11.3 for Arouca and 10.9 for Nacional

  1. Over 20.5 fouls61%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls46%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls31%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.