Probably Football

Matches

Primeira Liga (Portugal)

Academico Viseu vs Rio Ave

  1. Academico Viseu60%
  2. Draw25%
  3. Rio Ave15%

1.76 expected goals for Academico Viseu

0.86 expected goals for Rio Ave

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Academico Viseu the clear favourite: 60% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Academico Viseu defence, which lets in 42% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Academico Viseu attack, which scores 28% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 48% chance, and both teams scoring, 49%. And about 10.0 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Academico Viseu

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Academico Viseu attack+28%
  3. Rio Ave defence−8%

Expected goals1.76

Rio Ave

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Rio Ave attack+8%
  2. Academico Viseu defence−42%

Expected goals0.86

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%
  2. Over 1.5 goals74%
  3. Over 2.5 goals48%
  4. Over 3.5 goals27%
  5. Over 4.5 goals13%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.0 expected

5.2 for Academico Viseu and 4.8 for Rio Ave

  1. Over 8.5 corners62%
  2. Over 9.5 corners52%
  3. Over 10.5 corners42%

Cards

4.5 expected

2.2 for Academico Viseu and 2.3 for Rio Ave

  1. Over 3.5 cards65%
  2. Over 4.5 cards46%
  3. Over 5.5 cards29%

Shots

27.8 expected

15.7 for Academico Viseu and 12.1 for Rio Ave

  1. Over 20.5 shots84%
  2. Over 22.5 shots75%
  3. Over 24.5 shots65%

Fouls

24.3 expected

13.2 for Academico Viseu and 11.1 for Rio Ave

  1. Over 20.5 fouls75%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls62%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls47%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.