Probably Football

Matches

Primeira Liga (Portugal)

Sunday 25 October, 11:00

Final score

Rio Ave0-4Famalicao

The model's most likely result happened: a Famalicao win (52%).

Rio Ave vs Famalicao

  1. Rio Ave20%
  2. Draw28%
  3. Famalicao52%

0.89 expected goals for Rio Ave

1.47 expected goals for Famalicao

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Famalicao has the edge (52%), but not by much: a draw is at 28% and a Rio Ave win at 20%. It expects 2.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 45% chance, and both teams scoring, 48%. And about 9.8 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals90%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals69%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals45%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals21%It happened
  5. Over 4.5 goals9%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.8 expected

5.0 for Rio Ave and 4.8 for Famalicao

  1. Over 8.5 corners60%
  2. Over 9.5 corners49%
  3. Over 10.5 corners39%

Cards

4.0 expected

1.9 for Rio Ave and 2.2 for Famalicao

  1. Over 3.5 cards57%
  2. Over 4.5 cards38%
  3. Over 5.5 cards22%

Shots

23.9 expected

12.2 for Rio Ave and 11.7 for Famalicao

  1. Over 20.5 shots68%
  2. Over 22.5 shots56%
  3. Over 24.5 shots44%

Fouls

24.6 expected

12.3 for Rio Ave and 12.3 for Famalicao

  1. Over 20.5 fouls77%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls64%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls49%

Saved before kickoff, on 25 October at 07:17 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.