Sunday 25 October, 11:00
Final score
Estoril1-3Moreirense
The model gave this result 29%. Its most likely result was a Estoril win (41%).
Estoril vs Moreirense
- Estoril41%
- Draw30%
- Moreirense29%
1.32 expected goals for Estoril
1.08 expected goals for Moreirense
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
What the model said before kickoff
Estoril has the edge (41%), but not by much: a draw is at 30% and a Moreirense win at 29%. It expects 2.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 46% chance, and both teams scoring, 49%. And about 8.9 corners.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals90%It happened
- Over 1.5 goals70%It happened
- Over 2.5 goals46%It happened
- Over 3.5 goals22%It happened
- Over 4.5 goals10%It did not happen
- Both teams score49%
- Estoril or draw71%
- Draw or Moreirense59%
- No draw70%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
8.9 expected
5.2 for Estoril and 3.7 for Moreirense
- Over 8.5 corners51%
- Over 9.5 corners40%
- Over 10.5 corners31%
Cards
3.8 expected
1.8 for Estoril and 2.0 for Moreirense
- Over 3.5 cards52%
- Over 4.5 cards33%
- Over 5.5 cards18%
Shots
25.9 expected
14.0 for Estoril and 11.9 for Moreirense
- Over 20.5 shots78%
- Over 22.5 shots67%
- Over 24.5 shots56%
Fouls
25.4 expected
12.0 for Estoril and 13.4 for Moreirense
- Over 20.5 fouls81%
- Over 22.5 fouls69%
- Over 24.5 fouls55%
Saved before kickoff, on 25 October at 07:17 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.