Alverca vs Arouca

Alverca31%
Draw26%
Arouca43%

1.40 expected goals for Alverca

1.62 expected goals for Arouca

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Arouca has the edge (43%), but not by much: a draw is at 26% and a Alverca win at 31%. It expects 3.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 54% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%. And about 9.0 corners.

Goals

Over 0.5 goals95%It happened
Over 1.5 goals81%It did not happen
Over 2.5 goals54%It did not happen
Over 3.5 goals36%It did not happen
Over 4.5 goals19%It did not happen

Both teams score52%
Alverca or draw57%
Draw or Arouca69%
No draw74%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.0 expected

5.2 for Alverca and 3.8 for Arouca

Over 8.5 corners52%
Over 9.5 corners41%
Over 10.5 corners32%

Cards

4.5 expected

1.9 for Alverca and 2.6 for Arouca

Over 3.5 cards66%
Over 4.5 cards47%
Over 5.5 cards30%

Shots

24.3 expected

12.7 for Alverca and 11.6 for Arouca

Over 20.5 shots70%
Over 22.5 shots58%
Over 24.5 shots46%

Fouls

23.8 expected

12.7 for Alverca and 11.1 for Arouca

Over 20.5 fouls73%
Over 22.5 fouls58%
Over 24.5 fouls43%

Saved before kickoff, on 25 October at 07:17 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.