Probably Football

Matches

Bundesliga (Germany)

Hamburger SV vs Borussia Mönchengladbach

  1. Hamburger SV38%
  2. Draw27%
  3. Borussia Mönchengladbach35%

1.46 expected goals for Hamburger SV

1.45 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 38%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Borussia Mönchengladbach attack, which scores 46% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Borussia Mönchengladbach defence, which lets in 28% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 57% chance, and both teams scoring, 59%. And about 9.7 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Hamburger SV

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Hamburger SV attack+33%
  3. Borussia Mönchengladbach defence−28%

Expected goals1.46

Borussia Mönchengladbach

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Borussia Mönchengladbach attack+46%
  2. Hamburger SV defence−27%

Expected goals1.45

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%
  2. Over 1.5 goals79%
  3. Over 2.5 goals57%
  4. Over 3.5 goals33%
  5. Over 4.5 goals17%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.7 expected

5.2 for Hamburger SV and 4.5 for Borussia Mönchengladbach

  1. Over 8.5 corners59%
  2. Over 9.5 corners49%
  3. Over 10.5 corners39%

Cards

4.7 expected

2.0 for Hamburger SV and 2.6 for Borussia Mönchengladbach

  1. Over 3.5 cards68%
  2. Over 4.5 cards50%
  3. Over 5.5 cards32%

Shots

28.5 expected

15.7 for Hamburger SV and 12.8 for Borussia Mönchengladbach

  1. Over 20.5 shots86%
  2. Over 22.5 shots78%
  3. Over 24.5 shots69%

Fouls

24.2 expected

11.8 for Hamburger SV and 12.5 for Borussia Mönchengladbach

  1. Over 20.5 fouls75%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls61%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls46%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.