Probably Football

Matches

Bundesliga (Germany)

Saturday 31 October, 09:30

Werder Bremen vs 1899 Hoffenheim

  1. Werder Bremen38%
  2. Draw25%
  3. 1899 Hoffenheim37%

1.76 expected goals for Werder Bremen

1.82 expected goals for 1899 Hoffenheim

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 38%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the 1899 Hoffenheim attack, which scores 96% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Werder Bremen attack, which scores 70% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 65% chance, and both teams scoring, 66%. And about 10.2 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Werder Bremen

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Werder Bremen attack+70%
  3. 1899 Hoffenheim defence−31%

Expected goals1.76

1899 Hoffenheim

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. 1899 Hoffenheim attack+96%
  2. Werder Bremen defence−32%

Expected goals1.82

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals97%
  2. Over 1.5 goals88%
  3. Over 2.5 goals65%
  4. Over 3.5 goals48%
  5. Over 4.5 goals29%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.2 expected

5.1 for Werder Bremen and 5.1 for 1899 Hoffenheim

  1. Over 8.5 corners64%
  2. Over 9.5 corners54%
  3. Over 10.5 corners44%

Cards

4.0 expected

1.5 for Werder Bremen and 2.5 for 1899 Hoffenheim

  1. Over 3.5 cards57%
  2. Over 4.5 cards38%
  3. Over 5.5 cards22%

Shots

28.3 expected

15.3 for Werder Bremen and 13.0 for 1899 Hoffenheim

  1. Over 20.5 shots86%
  2. Over 22.5 shots78%
  3. Over 24.5 shots68%

Fouls

22.8 expected

10.2 for Werder Bremen and 12.7 for 1899 Hoffenheim

  1. Over 20.5 fouls66%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls51%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls36%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 21:35 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.