Probably Football

Matches

Bundesliga (Germany)

Saturday 31 October, 09:30

Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Paderborn 07

  1. Borussia Mönchengladbach40%
  2. Draw27%
  3. SC Paderborn 0733%

1.52 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach

1.40 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 40%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Borussia Mönchengladbach attack, which scores 54% more goals than an average team. Next comes the SC Paderborn 07 defence, which lets in 35% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 57% chance, and both teams scoring, 59%. And about 9.8 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Borussia Mönchengladbach

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Borussia Mönchengladbach attack+54%
  3. SC Paderborn 07 defence−35%

Expected goals1.52

SC Paderborn 07

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. SC Paderborn 07 attack+35%
  2. Borussia Mönchengladbach defence−24%

Expected goals1.40

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%
  2. Over 1.5 goals79%
  3. Over 2.5 goals57%
  4. Over 3.5 goals33%
  5. Over 4.5 goals17%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.8 expected

5.2 for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 4.6 for SC Paderborn 07

  1. Over 8.5 corners60%
  2. Over 9.5 corners50%
  3. Over 10.5 corners40%

Cards

4.2 expected

2.1 for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 2.1 for SC Paderborn 07

  1. Over 3.5 cards60%
  2. Over 4.5 cards40%
  3. Over 5.5 cards24%

Shots

29.1 expected

15.1 for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 14.0 for SC Paderborn 07

  1. Over 20.5 shots88%
  2. Over 22.5 shots81%
  3. Over 24.5 shots71%

Fouls

24.0 expected

13.2 for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 10.7 for SC Paderborn 07

  1. Over 20.5 fouls73%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls59%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls44%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 21:35 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.