Probably Football

Matches

Bundesliga (Germany)

Saturday 31 October, 09:30

Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln

  1. Union Berlin31%
  2. Draw27%
  3. 1. FC Köln42%

1.34 expected goals for Union Berlin

1.69 expected goals for 1. FC Köln

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

1. FC Köln has the edge (42%), but not by much: a draw is at 27% and a Union Berlin win at 31%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the 1. FC Köln attack, which scores 53% more goals than an average team. Next comes the 1. FC Köln defence, which lets in 32% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 59% chance, and both teams scoring, 60%. And about 9.8 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Union Berlin

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Union Berlin attack+31%
  3. 1. FC Köln defence−32%

Expected goals1.34

1. FC Köln

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. 1. FC Köln attack+53%
  2. Union Berlin defence−19%

Expected goals1.69

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals95%
  2. Over 1.5 goals81%
  3. Over 2.5 goals59%
  4. Over 3.5 goals36%
  5. Over 4.5 goals19%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.8 expected

5.1 for Union Berlin and 4.7 for 1. FC Köln

  1. Over 8.5 corners60%
  2. Over 9.5 corners49%
  3. Over 10.5 corners39%

Cards

4.4 expected

2.1 for Union Berlin and 2.2 for 1. FC Köln

  1. Over 3.5 cards64%
  2. Over 4.5 cards44%
  3. Over 5.5 cards28%

Shots

27.5 expected

12.9 for Union Berlin and 14.6 for 1. FC Köln

  1. Over 20.5 shots83%
  2. Over 22.5 shots74%
  3. Over 24.5 shots64%

Fouls

23.4 expected

11.9 for Union Berlin and 11.5 for 1. FC Köln

  1. Over 20.5 fouls70%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls55%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls40%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 21:35 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.