Probably Football

Matches

Bundesliga (Germany)

Saturday 31 October, 09:30

FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg

  1. FC Augsburg32%
  2. Draw24%
  3. SC Freiburg44%

1.65 expected goals for FC Augsburg

2.10 expected goals for SC Freiburg

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

SC Freiburg has the edge (44%), but not by much: a draw is at 24% and a FC Augsburg win at 32%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the SC Freiburg attack, which scores 125% more goals than an average team. Next comes the FC Augsburg attack, which scores 84% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 67% chance, and both teams scoring, 67%. And about 10.1 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

FC Augsburg

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. FC Augsburg attack+84%
  3. SC Freiburg defence−41%

Expected goals1.64

SC Freiburg

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. SC Freiburg attack+125%
  2. FC Augsburg defence−32%

Expected goals2.09

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals97%
  2. Over 1.5 goals89%
  3. Over 2.5 goals67%
  4. Over 3.5 goals51%
  5. Over 4.5 goals32%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.1 expected

5.2 for FC Augsburg and 5.0 for SC Freiburg

  1. Over 8.5 corners63%
  2. Over 9.5 corners53%
  3. Over 10.5 corners43%

Cards

3.9 expected

1.6 for FC Augsburg and 2.3 for SC Freiburg

  1. Over 3.5 cards55%
  2. Over 4.5 cards35%
  3. Over 5.5 cards20%

Shots

30.1 expected

14.4 for FC Augsburg and 15.8 for SC Freiburg

  1. Over 20.5 shots90%
  2. Over 22.5 shots84%
  3. Over 24.5 shots75%

Fouls

22.5 expected

11.6 for FC Augsburg and 11.0 for SC Freiburg

  1. Over 20.5 fouls64%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls48%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls34%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 21:35 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.