Probably Football

Matches

Bundesliga (Germany)

Saturday 31 October, 09:30

Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburger SV

  1. Eintracht Frankfurt55%
  2. Draw24%
  3. Hamburger SV21%

2.29 expected goals for Eintracht Frankfurt

1.34 expected goals for Hamburger SV

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Eintracht Frankfurt the clear favourite: 55% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Eintracht Frankfurt attack, which scores 113% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Hamburger SV defence, which lets in 29% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 66% chance, and both teams scoring, 63%. And about 10.1 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Eintracht Frankfurt

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Eintracht Frankfurt attack+113%
  3. Hamburger SV defence−29%

Expected goals2.29

Hamburger SV

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Hamburger SV attack+35%
  2. Eintracht Frankfurt defence−27%

Expected goals1.34

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals97%
  2. Over 1.5 goals88%
  3. Over 2.5 goals66%
  4. Over 3.5 goals49%
  5. Over 4.5 goals30%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.1 expected

5.7 for Eintracht Frankfurt and 4.4 for Hamburger SV

  1. Over 8.5 corners63%
  2. Over 9.5 corners53%
  3. Over 10.5 corners43%

Cards

3.9 expected

1.7 for Eintracht Frankfurt and 2.2 for Hamburger SV

  1. Over 3.5 cards55%
  2. Over 4.5 cards36%
  3. Over 5.5 cards20%

Shots

29.1 expected

16.7 for Eintracht Frankfurt and 12.5 for Hamburger SV

  1. Over 20.5 shots88%
  2. Over 22.5 shots80%
  3. Over 24.5 shots71%

Fouls

23.9 expected

11.2 for Eintracht Frankfurt and 12.8 for Hamburger SV

  1. Over 20.5 fouls73%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls59%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls44%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 21:35 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.