Probably Football

Matches

Bundesliga (Germany)

Saturday 31 October, 09:30

Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart

  1. Bayer Leverkusen48%
  2. Draw26%
  3. VfB Stuttgart26%

1.86 expected goals for Bayer Leverkusen

1.31 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Bayer Leverkusen has the edge (48%), but not by much: a draw is at 26% and a VfB Stuttgart win at 26%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Bayer Leverkusen attack, which scores 141% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Bayer Leverkusen defence, which lets in 51% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.2 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 60% chance, and both teams scoring, 60%. And about 10.0 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Bayer Leverkusen

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Bayer Leverkusen attack+141%
  3. VfB Stuttgart defence−49%

Expected goals1.86

VfB Stuttgart

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. VfB Stuttgart attack+98%
  2. Bayer Leverkusen defence−51%

Expected goals1.31

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals95%
  2. Over 1.5 goals83%
  3. Over 2.5 goals60%
  4. Over 3.5 goals39%
  5. Over 4.5 goals21%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.0 expected

5.2 for Bayer Leverkusen and 4.8 for VfB Stuttgart

  1. Over 8.5 corners62%
  2. Over 9.5 corners52%
  3. Over 10.5 corners42%

Cards

3.8 expected

1.7 for Bayer Leverkusen and 2.1 for VfB Stuttgart

  1. Over 3.5 cards53%
  2. Over 4.5 cards34%
  3. Over 5.5 cards19%

Shots

31.8 expected

19.0 for Bayer Leverkusen and 12.8 for VfB Stuttgart

  1. Over 20.5 shots93%
  2. Over 22.5 shots88%
  3. Over 24.5 shots81%

Fouls

22.0 expected

11.5 for Bayer Leverkusen and 10.5 for VfB Stuttgart

  1. Over 20.5 fouls60%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls44%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls30%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 21:35 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.