Probably Football

Matches

Bundesliga (Germany)

Saturday 31 October, 09:30

Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund

  1. Bayern München65%
  2. Draw21%
  3. Borussia Dortmund14%

2.68 expected goals for Bayern München

1.17 expected goals for Borussia Dortmund

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Bayern München the clear favourite: 65% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Bayern München attack, which scores 325% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Borussia Dortmund defence, which lets in 58% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 68% chance, and both teams scoring, 62%. And about 11.4 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Bayern München

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Bayern München attack+325%
  3. Borussia Dortmund defence−58%

Expected goals2.68

Borussia Dortmund

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Borussia Dortmund attack+103%
  2. Bayern München defence−58%

Expected goals1.17

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals98%
  2. Over 1.5 goals90%
  3. Over 2.5 goals68%
  4. Over 3.5 goals54%
  5. Over 4.5 goals34%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

11.4 expected

6.0 for Bayern München and 5.4 for Borussia Dortmund

  1. Over 8.5 corners73%
  2. Over 9.5 corners64%
  3. Over 10.5 corners55%

Cards

3.7 expected

1.5 for Bayern München and 2.2 for Borussia Dortmund

  1. Over 3.5 cards51%
  2. Over 4.5 cards32%
  3. Over 5.5 cards17%

Shots

30.0 expected

18.0 for Bayern München and 12.0 for Borussia Dortmund

  1. Over 20.5 shots90%
  2. Over 22.5 shots83%
  3. Over 24.5 shots74%

Fouls

20.6 expected

10.6 for Bayern München and 10.0 for Borussia Dortmund

  1. Over 20.5 fouls49%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls34%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls21%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 21:35 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.