Probably Football

Matches

Bundesliga (Germany)

Saturday 24 October, 08:30

Final score

FSV Mainz 052-3Werder Bremen

The model gave this result 26%. Its most likely result was a FSV Mainz 05 win (48%).

FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen

  1. FSV Mainz 0548%
  2. Draw26%
  3. Werder Bremen26%

1.76 expected goals for FSV Mainz 05

1.25 expected goals for Werder Bremen

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

FSV Mainz 05 has the edge (48%), but not by much: a draw is at 26% and a Werder Bremen win at 26%. It expects 3.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 59% chance, and both teams scoring, 59%. And about 9.8 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals95%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals81%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals59%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals36%It happened
  5. Over 4.5 goals19%It happened

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.8 expected

5.9 for FSV Mainz 05 and 3.9 for Werder Bremen

  1. Over 8.5 corners60%
  2. Over 9.5 corners49%
  3. Over 10.5 corners39%

Cards

4.3 expected

2.0 for FSV Mainz 05 and 2.3 for Werder Bremen

  1. Over 3.5 cards62%
  2. Over 4.5 cards42%
  3. Over 5.5 cards26%

Shots

30.2 expected

18.6 for FSV Mainz 05 and 11.6 for Werder Bremen

  1. Over 20.5 shots90%
  2. Over 22.5 shots83%
  3. Over 24.5 shots75%

Fouls

23.2 expected

11.5 for FSV Mainz 05 and 11.7 for Werder Bremen

  1. Over 20.5 fouls69%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls54%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls39%

Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.