Saturday 24 October, 08:30
Final score
SC Freiburg1-3Bayern München
The model's most likely result happened: a Bayern München win (66%).
SC Freiburg vs Bayern München
- SC Freiburg16%
- Draw18%
- Bayern München66%
1.47 expected goals for SC Freiburg
3.34 expected goals for Bayern München
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
What the model said before kickoff
The model makes Bayern München the clear favourite: 66% to win. It expects 4.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 77% chance, and both teams scoring, 70%. And about 10.2 corners.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals99%It happened
- Over 1.5 goals95%It happened
- Over 2.5 goals77%It happened
- Over 3.5 goals71%It happened
- Over 4.5 goals52%It did not happen
- Both teams score70%
- SC Freiburg or draw34%
- Draw or Bayern München85%
- No draw82%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
10.2 expected
5.2 for SC Freiburg and 5.0 for Bayern München
- Over 8.5 corners64%
- Over 9.5 corners54%
- Over 10.5 corners44%
Cards
4.0 expected
1.9 for SC Freiburg and 2.1 for Bayern München
- Over 3.5 cards56%
- Over 4.5 cards36%
- Over 5.5 cards21%
Shots
28.3 expected
13.7 for SC Freiburg and 14.6 for Bayern München
- Over 20.5 shots86%
- Over 22.5 shots77%
- Over 24.5 shots68%
Fouls
21.8 expected
10.3 for SC Freiburg and 11.5 for Bayern München
- Over 20.5 fouls59%
- Over 22.5 fouls43%
- Over 24.5 fouls29%
Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.