Probably Football

Matches

Bundesliga (Germany)

Saturday 24 October, 08:30

Final score

1899 Hoffenheim3-0Bayer Leverkusen

The model gave this result 20%. Its most likely result was a Bayer Leverkusen win (58%).

1899 Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen

  1. 1899 Hoffenheim20%
  2. Draw22%
  3. Bayer Leverkusen58%

1.28 expected goals for 1899 Hoffenheim

2.48 expected goals for Bayer Leverkusen

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

The model makes Bayer Leverkusen the clear favourite: 58% to win. It expects 3.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 67% chance, and both teams scoring, 63%. And about 9.8 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals97%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals89%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals67%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals52%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals32%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.8 expected

5.5 for 1899 Hoffenheim and 4.3 for Bayer Leverkusen

  1. Over 8.5 corners60%
  2. Over 9.5 corners50%
  3. Over 10.5 corners40%

Cards

4.1 expected

2.1 for 1899 Hoffenheim and 2.0 for Bayer Leverkusen

  1. Over 3.5 cards59%
  2. Over 4.5 cards39%
  3. Over 5.5 cards23%

Shots

28.4 expected

14.5 for 1899 Hoffenheim and 14.0 for Bayer Leverkusen

  1. Over 20.5 shots86%
  2. Over 22.5 shots78%
  3. Over 24.5 shots68%

Fouls

23.7 expected

12.0 for 1899 Hoffenheim and 11.7 for Bayer Leverkusen

  1. Over 20.5 fouls72%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls58%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls43%

Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.