Probably Football

Matches

Bundesliga (Germany)

Saturday 24 October, 08:30

Final score

RB Leipzig4-0SV Elversberg

The model's most likely result happened: a RB Leipzig win (57%).

RB Leipzig vs SV Elversberg

  1. RB Leipzig57%
  2. Draw22%
  3. SV Elversberg21%

2.55 expected goals for RB Leipzig

1.50 expected goals for SV Elversberg

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

The model makes RB Leipzig the clear favourite: 57% to win. It expects 4.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 70% chance, and both teams scoring, 67%. And about 11.1 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals98%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals92%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals70%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals58%It happened
  5. Over 4.5 goals38%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

11.1 expected

6.0 for RB Leipzig and 5.1 for SV Elversberg

  1. Over 8.5 corners71%
  2. Over 9.5 corners62%
  3. Over 10.5 corners52%

Cards

4.0 expected

1.7 for RB Leipzig and 2.2 for SV Elversberg

  1. Over 3.5 cards56%
  2. Over 4.5 cards36%
  3. Over 5.5 cards21%

Shots

31.6 expected

19.5 for RB Leipzig and 12.1 for SV Elversberg

  1. Over 20.5 shots92%
  2. Over 22.5 shots87%
  3. Over 24.5 shots80%

Fouls

23.9 expected

11.9 for RB Leipzig and 12.1 for SV Elversberg

  1. Over 20.5 fouls73%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls59%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls44%

Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.