Probably Football

Matches

National 1 (France)

Saturday 31 October, 13:30

Rouen vs Concarneau

  1. Rouen45%
  2. Draw31%
  3. Concarneau24%

1.43 expected goals for Rouen

0.93 expected goals for Concarneau

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Rouen has the edge (45%), but not by much: a draw is at 31% and a Concarneau win at 24%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Rouen defence, which lets in 29% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Concarneau defence, which lets in 15% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 45% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Rouen

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Rouen attack+12%
  3. Concarneau defence−15%

Expected goals1.43

Concarneau

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Concarneau attack−4%
  2. Rouen defence−29%

Expected goals0.93

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals90%
  2. Over 1.5 goals69%
  3. Over 2.5 goals45%
  4. Over 3.5 goals21%
  5. Over 4.5 goals9%

Saved before kickoff, on 30 October at 01:36 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.