Probably Football

Matches

National 1 (France)

Saturday 31 October, 13:30

Cannes vs Valenciennes

  1. Cannes51%
  2. Draw29%
  3. Valenciennes20%

1.75 expected goals for Cannes

0.92 expected goals for Valenciennes

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Cannes has the edge (51%), but not by much: a draw is at 29% and a Valenciennes win at 20%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Cannes defence, which lets in 23% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Cannes attack, which scores 21% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 45% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Cannes

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Cannes attack+21%
  3. Valenciennes defence−5%

Expected goals1.75

Valenciennes

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Valenciennes attack−12%
  2. Cannes defence−23%

Expected goals0.92

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals93%
  2. Over 1.5 goals75%
  3. Over 2.5 goals45%
  4. Over 3.5 goals28%
  5. Over 4.5 goals13%

Saved before kickoff, on 30 October at 01:36 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.