Probably Football

Matches

National 1 (France)

Saturday 31 October, 13:30

Amiens vs Thionville Lusitanos

  1. Amiens43%
  2. Draw30%
  3. Thionville Lusitanos27%

1.65 expected goals for Amiens

1.24 expected goals for Thionville Lusitanos

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Amiens has the edge (43%), but not by much: a draw is at 30% and a Thionville Lusitanos win at 27%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Amiens defence, which lets in 18% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 45% chance, and both teams scoring, 50%.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Amiens

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Amiens attack+7%
  3. Thionville Lusitanos defence+2%

Expected goals1.65

Thionville Lusitanos

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Thionville Lusitanos attack+11%
  2. Amiens defence−18%

Expected goals1.24

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%
  2. Over 1.5 goals79%
  3. Over 2.5 goals45%
  4. Over 3.5 goals33%
  5. Over 4.5 goals17%

Saved before kickoff, on 30 October at 01:36 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.