Villarreal vs Espanyol
- Villarreal66%
- Draw21%
- Espanyol13%
2.30 expected goals for Villarreal
1.05 expected goals for Espanyol
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
The model makes Villarreal the clear favourite: 66% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Villarreal attack, which scores 132% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Villarreal defence, which lets in 41% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 57% chance, and both teams scoring, 56%. And about 10.5 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Villarreal
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Villarreal attack+132%
- Espanyol defence−34%
Expected goals2.30
Espanyol
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Espanyol attack+31%
- Villarreal defence−41%
Expected goals1.05
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals96%
- Over 1.5 goals85%
- Over 2.5 goals57%
- Over 3.5 goals43%
- Over 4.5 goals25%
- Both teams score56%
- Villarreal or draw87%
- Draw or Espanyol34%
- No draw79%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
10.5 expected
6.0 for Villarreal and 4.4 for Espanyol
- Over 8.5 corners66%
- Over 9.5 corners56%
- Over 10.5 corners46%
Cards
5.0 expected
2.4 for Villarreal and 2.6 for Espanyol
- Over 3.5 cards74%
- Over 4.5 cards56%
- Over 5.5 cards39%
Shots
29.2 expected
18.1 for Villarreal and 11.1 for Espanyol
- Over 20.5 shots88%
- Over 22.5 shots80%
- Over 24.5 shots71%
Fouls
23.4 expected
10.4 for Villarreal and 13.0 for Espanyol
- Over 20.5 fouls70%
- Over 22.5 fouls55%
- Over 24.5 fouls40%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.