Probably Football

Matches

La Liga (Spain)

Racing Santander vs Real Madrid

  1. Racing Santander11%
  2. Draw6%
  3. Real Madrid83%

1.08 expected goals for Racing Santander

3.94 expected goals for Real Madrid

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Real Madrid the clear favourite: 83% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Real Madrid attack, which scores 206% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Real Madrid defence, which lets in 59% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 5.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 80% chance, and both teams scoring, 61%. And about 9.9 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Racing Santander

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Racing Santander attack+74%
  3. Real Madrid defence−59%

Expected goals1.08

Real Madrid

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Real Madrid attack+206%
  2. Racing Santander defence−5%

Expected goals3.94

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals99%
  2. Over 1.5 goals96%
  3. Over 2.5 goals80%
  4. Over 3.5 goals74%
  5. Over 4.5 goals56%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.9 expected

4.8 for Racing Santander and 5.0 for Real Madrid

  1. Over 8.5 corners61%
  2. Over 9.5 corners50%
  3. Over 10.5 corners40%

Cards

4.7 expected

2.2 for Racing Santander and 2.5 for Real Madrid

  1. Over 3.5 cards69%
  2. Over 4.5 cards50%
  3. Over 5.5 cards33%

Shots

27.8 expected

13.5 for Racing Santander and 14.3 for Real Madrid

  1. Over 20.5 shots84%
  2. Over 22.5 shots75%
  3. Over 24.5 shots65%

Fouls

24.6 expected

13.0 for Racing Santander and 11.6 for Real Madrid

  1. Over 20.5 fouls77%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls64%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls49%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.