Probably Football

Matches

La Liga (Spain)

Levante vs Atletico Madrid

  1. Levante22%
  2. Draw24%
  3. Atletico Madrid54%

1.02 expected goals for Levante

1.98 expected goals for Atletico Madrid

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Atletico Madrid has the edge (54%), but not by much: a draw is at 24% and a Levante win at 22%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Atletico Madrid defence, which lets in 57% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Atletico Madrid attack, which scores 111% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 52% chance, and both teams scoring, 54%. And about 9.4 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Levante

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Levante attack+60%
  3. Atletico Madrid defence−57%

Expected goals1.02

Atletico Madrid

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Atletico Madrid attack+111%
  2. Levante defence−31%

Expected goals1.97

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals95%
  2. Over 1.5 goals81%
  3. Over 2.5 goals52%
  4. Over 3.5 goals35%
  5. Over 4.5 goals18%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.4 expected

4.8 for Levante and 4.6 for Atletico Madrid

  1. Over 8.5 corners56%
  2. Over 9.5 corners45%
  3. Over 10.5 corners35%

Cards

4.0 expected

1.5 for Levante and 2.5 for Atletico Madrid

  1. Over 3.5 cards56%
  2. Over 4.5 cards37%
  3. Over 5.5 cards21%

Shots

26.1 expected

11.6 for Levante and 14.6 for Atletico Madrid

  1. Over 20.5 shots78%
  2. Over 22.5 shots68%
  3. Over 24.5 shots56%

Fouls

23.8 expected

11.2 for Levante and 12.6 for Atletico Madrid

  1. Over 20.5 fouls73%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls58%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls43%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.