Getafe vs Sevilla
- Getafe30%
- Draw30%
- Sevilla40%
1.02 expected goals for Getafe
1.31 expected goals for Sevilla
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
Sevilla has the edge (40%), but not by much: a draw is at 30% and a Getafe win at 30%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Sevilla defence, which lets in 41% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Getafe defence, which lets in 40% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 43% chance, and both teams scoring, 50%. And about 9.5 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Getafe
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Getafe attack+14%
- Sevilla defence−41%
Expected goals1.02
Sevilla
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Sevilla attack+62%
- Getafe defence−40%
Expected goals1.32
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals90%
- Over 1.5 goals68%
- Over 2.5 goals43%
- Over 3.5 goals21%
- Over 4.5 goals9%
- Both teams score50%
- Getafe or draw60%
- Draw or Sevilla70%
- No draw70%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
9.5 expected
5.4 for Getafe and 4.1 for Sevilla
- Over 8.5 corners57%
- Over 9.5 corners46%
- Over 10.5 corners36%
Cards
4.6 expected
2.0 for Getafe and 2.6 for Sevilla
- Over 3.5 cards67%
- Over 4.5 cards48%
- Over 5.5 cards31%
Shots
26.7 expected
13.8 for Getafe and 12.9 for Sevilla
- Over 20.5 shots81%
- Over 22.5 shots71%
- Over 24.5 shots60%
Fouls
24.2 expected
11.2 for Getafe and 13.0 for Sevilla
- Over 20.5 fouls75%
- Over 22.5 fouls61%
- Over 24.5 fouls46%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.