Probably Football

Matches

La Liga (Spain)

Deportivo La Coruna vs Osasuna

  1. Deportivo La Coruna40%
  2. Draw28%
  3. Osasuna32%

1.41 expected goals for Deportivo La Coruna

1.32 expected goals for Osasuna

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Deportivo La Coruna has the edge (40%), but not by much: a draw is at 28% and a Osasuna win at 32%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Deportivo La Coruna defence, which lets in 40% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Osasuna attack, which scores 63% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 48% chance, and both teams scoring, 55%. And about 10.2 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Deportivo La Coruna

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Deportivo La Coruna attack+34%
  3. Osasuna defence−30%

Expected goals1.41

Osasuna

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Osasuna attack+63%
  2. Deportivo La Coruna defence−40%

Expected goals1.32

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals93%
  2. Over 1.5 goals76%
  3. Over 2.5 goals48%
  4. Over 3.5 goals29%
  5. Over 4.5 goals14%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.2 expected

6.1 for Deportivo La Coruna and 4.1 for Osasuna

  1. Over 8.5 corners64%
  2. Over 9.5 corners53%
  3. Over 10.5 corners43%

Cards

4.3 expected

1.7 for Deportivo La Coruna and 2.5 for Osasuna

  1. Over 3.5 cards62%
  2. Over 4.5 cards42%
  3. Over 5.5 cards26%

Shots

28.5 expected

17.8 for Deportivo La Coruna and 10.7 for Osasuna

  1. Over 20.5 shots86%
  2. Over 22.5 shots78%
  3. Over 24.5 shots68%

Fouls

24.4 expected

11.0 for Deportivo La Coruna and 13.3 for Osasuna

  1. Over 20.5 fouls76%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls62%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls47%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.