Real Betis vs Malaga
- Real Betis69%
- Draw20%
- Malaga11%
2.31 expected goals for Real Betis
0.94 expected goals for Malaga
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
The model makes Real Betis the clear favourite: 69% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Real Betis attack, which scores 112% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Real Betis defence, which lets in 47% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 55% chance, and both teams scoring, 54%. And about 9.9 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Real Betis
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Real Betis attack+112%
- Malaga defence−28%
Expected goals2.31
Malaga
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Malaga attack+30%
- Real Betis defence−47%
Expected goals0.94
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals96%
- Over 1.5 goals84%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Over 3.5 goals41%
- Over 4.5 goals23%
- Both teams score54%
- Real Betis or draw89%
- Draw or Malaga31%
- No draw80%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
9.9 expected
5.4 for Real Betis and 4.5 for Malaga
- Over 8.5 corners61%
- Over 9.5 corners51%
- Over 10.5 corners41%
Cards
4.6 expected
2.1 for Real Betis and 2.5 for Malaga
- Over 3.5 cards67%
- Over 4.5 cards49%
- Over 5.5 cards31%
Shots
29.1 expected
18.8 for Real Betis and 10.4 for Malaga
- Over 20.5 shots87%
- Over 22.5 shots80%
- Over 24.5 shots70%
Fouls
22.9 expected
11.2 for Real Betis and 11.7 for Malaga
- Over 20.5 fouls66%
- Over 22.5 fouls51%
- Over 24.5 fouls36%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.