Valencia vs Villarreal

Valencia29%
Draw27%
Villarreal44%

1.25 expected goals for Valencia

1.73 expected goals for Villarreal

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Villarreal has the edge (44%), but not by much: a draw is at 27% and a Valencia win at 29%. It expects 3.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 51% chance, and both teams scoring, 57%. And about 9.8 corners.

Goals

Over 0.5 goals94%It happened
Over 1.5 goals80%It happened
Over 2.5 goals51%It happened
Over 3.5 goals35%It did not happen
Over 4.5 goals18%It did not happen

Both teams score57%
Valencia or draw56%
Draw or Villarreal71%
No draw73%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.8 expected

5.0 for Valencia and 4.7 for Villarreal

Over 8.5 corners60%
Over 9.5 corners49%
Over 10.5 corners39%

Cards

4.5 expected

2.4 for Valencia and 2.1 for Villarreal

Over 3.5 cards66%
Over 4.5 cards47%
Over 5.5 cards29%

Shots

26.6 expected

10.6 for Valencia and 16.0 for Villarreal

Over 20.5 shots80%
Over 22.5 shots70%
Over 24.5 shots59%

Fouls

22.1 expected

11.3 for Valencia and 10.8 for Villarreal

Over 20.5 fouls61%
Over 22.5 fouls45%
Over 24.5 fouls30%

Saved before kickoff, on 25 October at 07:17 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.