Probably Football

Matches

La Liga (Spain)

Sunday 25 October, 11:00

Final score

Real Sociedad2-1Levante

The model's most likely result happened: a Real Sociedad win (64%).

Real Sociedad vs Levante

  1. Real Sociedad64%
  2. Draw19%
  3. Levante17%

2.66 expected goals for Real Sociedad

1.50 expected goals for Levante

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

The model makes Real Sociedad the clear favourite: 64% to win. It expects 4.2 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 69% chance, and both teams scoring, 67%. And about 10.0 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals98%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals92%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals69%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals60%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals40%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.0 expected

5.7 for Real Sociedad and 4.3 for Levante

  1. Over 8.5 corners62%
  2. Over 9.5 corners52%
  3. Over 10.5 corners42%

Cards

3.9 expected

1.8 for Real Sociedad and 2.1 for Levante

  1. Over 3.5 cards54%
  2. Over 4.5 cards34%
  3. Over 5.5 cards19%

Shots

30.1 expected

17.4 for Real Sociedad and 12.7 for Levante

  1. Over 20.5 shots90%
  2. Over 22.5 shots83%
  3. Over 24.5 shots75%

Fouls

22.6 expected

11.8 for Real Sociedad and 10.9 for Levante

  1. Over 20.5 fouls65%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls49%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls35%

Saved before kickoff, on 25 October at 07:17 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.