Probably Football

Matches

La Liga (Spain)

Sunday 25 October, 11:00

Final score

Rayo Vallecano0-3Elche

The model gave this result 26%. Its most likely result was a Rayo Vallecano win (46%).

Rayo Vallecano vs Elche

  1. Rayo Vallecano46%
  2. Draw28%
  3. Elche26%

1.52 expected goals for Rayo Vallecano

1.16 expected goals for Elche

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Rayo Vallecano has the edge (46%), but not by much: a draw is at 28% and a Elche win at 26%. It expects 2.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 47% chance, and both teams scoring, 54%. And about 9.9 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals93%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals75%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals47%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals28%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals13%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.9 expected

5.4 for Rayo Vallecano and 4.6 for Elche

  1. Over 8.5 corners61%
  2. Over 9.5 corners51%
  3. Over 10.5 corners41%

Cards

4.2 expected

2.0 for Rayo Vallecano and 2.2 for Elche

  1. Over 3.5 cards61%
  2. Over 4.5 cards41%
  3. Over 5.5 cards25%

Shots

29.7 expected

17.4 for Rayo Vallecano and 12.3 for Elche

  1. Over 20.5 shots89%
  2. Over 22.5 shots82%
  3. Over 24.5 shots73%

Fouls

25.2 expected

12.2 for Rayo Vallecano and 13.0 for Elche

  1. Over 20.5 fouls80%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls67%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls53%

Saved before kickoff, on 25 October at 07:17 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.