Sunday 25 October, 11:00
Final score
Barcelona1-2Real Madrid
The model gave this result 22%. Its most likely result was a Barcelona win (59%).
Barcelona vs Real Madrid
- Barcelona59%
- Draw19%
- Real Madrid22%
2.87 expected goals for Barcelona
1.92 expected goals for Real Madrid
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
What the model said before kickoff
The model makes Barcelona the clear favourite: 59% to win. It expects 4.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 77% chance, and both teams scoring, 76%. And about 9.4 corners.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals99%It happened
- Over 1.5 goals95%It happened
- Over 2.5 goals77%It happened
- Over 3.5 goals70%It did not happen
- Over 4.5 goals52%It did not happen
- Both teams score76%
- Barcelona or draw78%
- Draw or Real Madrid41%
- No draw81%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
9.4 expected
5.7 for Barcelona and 3.6 for Real Madrid
- Over 8.5 corners56%
- Over 9.5 corners45%
- Over 10.5 corners35%
Cards
4.1 expected
1.7 for Barcelona and 2.4 for Real Madrid
- Over 3.5 cards59%
- Over 4.5 cards40%
- Over 5.5 cards24%
Shots
29.2 expected
20.2 for Barcelona and 9.0 for Real Madrid
- Over 20.5 shots87%
- Over 22.5 shots79%
- Over 24.5 shots69%
Fouls
22.7 expected
12.6 for Barcelona and 10.2 for Real Madrid
- Over 20.5 fouls65%
- Over 22.5 fouls50%
- Over 24.5 fouls35%
Saved before kickoff, on 25 October at 07:17 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.