Alaves vs Malaga

Alaves60%
Draw25%
Malaga15%

1.91 expected goals for Alaves

0.96 expected goals for Malaga

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

The model makes Alaves the clear favourite: 60% to win. It expects 2.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 50% chance, and both teams scoring, 53%. And about 9.4 corners.

Goals

Over 0.5 goals94%It happened
Over 1.5 goals79%It happened
Over 2.5 goals50%It did not happen
Over 3.5 goals32%It did not happen
Over 4.5 goals16%It did not happen

Both teams score53%
Alaves or draw85%
Draw or Malaga40%
No draw75%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.4 expected

4.6 for Alaves and 4.8 for Malaga

Over 8.5 corners56%
Over 9.5 corners45%
Over 10.5 corners35%

Cards

4.4 expected

1.7 for Alaves and 2.7 for Malaga

Over 3.5 cards64%
Over 4.5 cards44%
Over 5.5 cards28%

Shots

25.1 expected

14.4 for Alaves and 10.7 for Malaga

Over 20.5 shots74%
Over 22.5 shots63%
Over 24.5 shots51%

Fouls

26.0 expected

12.1 for Alaves and 13.9 for Malaga

Over 20.5 fouls84%
Over 22.5 fouls72%
Over 24.5 fouls59%

Saved before kickoff, on 25 October at 07:17 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.