Probably Football

Matches

Segunda División (Spain)

Real Sociedad II vs Girona

  1. Real Sociedad II17%
  2. Draw23%
  3. Girona60%

0.78 expected goals for Real Sociedad II

2.27 expected goals for Girona

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Girona the clear favourite: 60% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Girona defence, which lets in 46% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Girona attack, which scores 47% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 48% chance, and both teams scoring, 49%. And about 9.7 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Real Sociedad II

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Real Sociedad II attack−4%
  3. Girona defence−46%

Expected goals0.78

Girona

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Girona attack+47%
  2. Real Sociedad II defence+14%

Expected goals2.27

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals95%
  2. Over 1.5 goals81%
  3. Over 2.5 goals48%
  4. Over 3.5 goals36%
  5. Over 4.5 goals19%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.7 expected

5.6 for Real Sociedad II and 4.1 for Girona

  1. Over 8.5 corners59%
  2. Over 9.5 corners48%
  3. Over 10.5 corners38%

Cards

4.6 expected

2.3 for Real Sociedad II and 2.3 for Girona

  1. Over 3.5 cards67%
  2. Over 4.5 cards48%
  3. Over 5.5 cards31%

Shots

27.2 expected

12.7 for Real Sociedad II and 14.5 for Girona

  1. Over 20.5 shots82%
  2. Over 22.5 shots73%
  3. Over 24.5 shots62%

Fouls

27.2 expected

16.1 for Real Sociedad II and 11.2 for Girona

  1. Over 20.5 fouls88%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls79%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls67%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.