Probably Football

Matches

Segunda División (Spain)

Sunday 25 October, 11:00

Final score

Sabadell1-1Tenerife

The model gave this result 32%. Its most likely result was a Sabadell win (43%).

Sabadell vs Tenerife

  1. Sabadell43%
  2. Draw32%
  3. Tenerife25%

1.01 expected goals for Sabadell

0.81 expected goals for Tenerife

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Sabadell has the edge (43%), but not by much: a draw is at 32% and a Tenerife win at 25%. It expects 1.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 37% chance, and both teams scoring, 44%. And about 8.9 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals83%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals55%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals37%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals11%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals4%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

8.9 expected

5.2 for Sabadell and 3.7 for Tenerife

  1. Over 8.5 corners51%
  2. Over 9.5 corners40%
  3. Over 10.5 corners31%

Cards

4.6 expected

2.2 for Sabadell and 2.5 for Tenerife

  1. Over 3.5 cards68%
  2. Over 4.5 cards49%
  3. Over 5.5 cards32%

Shots

24.1 expected

14.6 for Sabadell and 9.5 for Tenerife

  1. Over 20.5 shots69%
  2. Over 22.5 shots57%
  3. Over 24.5 shots45%

Fouls

27.1 expected

15.1 for Sabadell and 12.0 for Tenerife

  1. Over 20.5 fouls88%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls78%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls66%

Saved before kickoff, on 25 October at 07:17 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.