Probably Football

Matches

Segunda División (Spain)

Sunday 25 October, 11:00

Final score

Leganes1-1Mallorca

The model gave this result 29%. Its most likely result was a Mallorca win (51%).

Leganes vs Mallorca

  1. Leganes20%
  2. Draw29%
  3. Mallorca51%

0.58 expected goals for Leganes

1.52 expected goals for Mallorca

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Mallorca has the edge (51%), but not by much: a draw is at 29% and a Leganes win at 20%. It expects 2.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 40% chance, and both teams scoring, 44%. And about 9.5 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals87%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals63%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals40%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals16%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals6%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.5 expected

5.0 for Leganes and 4.5 for Mallorca

  1. Over 8.5 corners57%
  2. Over 9.5 corners46%
  3. Over 10.5 corners36%

Cards

5.0 expected

2.4 for Leganes and 2.6 for Mallorca

  1. Over 3.5 cards73%
  2. Over 4.5 cards56%
  3. Over 5.5 cards38%

Shots

27.1 expected

12.9 for Leganes and 14.2 for Mallorca

  1. Over 20.5 shots82%
  2. Over 22.5 shots73%
  3. Over 24.5 shots62%

Fouls

29.3 expected

15.9 for Leganes and 13.4 for Mallorca

  1. Over 20.5 fouls94%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls87%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls78%

Saved before kickoff, on 25 October at 07:17 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.